Allsvenskan: the 2011 Prediction

March 10th, 2011 | by: aron | Comments Off

Perhaps the title of this post should be “Predicting the Unpredictable.” Given the size and nature of the current format for Allsvenskan, predictions for a season are extremely complicated. So many factors have to be taken into account. The big one is always pre-season investments. In this case it means determining which teams brought back what ageing players from other European leagues. After this there is the question about how the teams did last season with the material they had and how much of it have they been able to keep since the winter transfer market can be a quick way to make a buck or two and fix that salary and debt problem, at least temporarily. However, it often means that the replacements aren’t ready or can’t handle the responsibility.

Then there are the teams that seem to have it all and still manage to play like utter garbage no matter what. Then there are injuries; a category that can’t be taken lightly as it can have a devastating effect. Then finally there is the summer transfer window, and this is really where winning the title can run aground quickly if the directors and coaches would rather make a quick sale. When taking all these things into account, it becomes obvious that this is a volatile league, where last years losers are suddenly winners. It has certainly been the case for a while now. For example, two seasons ago AIK won the title and then the next year struggled to stay out of the relegation race. In fact no team has pulled off a title repeat since Djurgården IF, who won twice in 2002 and 2003. Keeping all this in mind I move on to the season predictions:

The Allsvenskan 2011

1. IF Elfsborg. This is a conservative guess, but with a healthy Anders Svensson and the new signings of David Elm (Fulham) and Lasse Nilsson (Vitesse) they might just have a shot at the thing. Weak points for me seem to be the defensive side of the whole equation as they have proved capable of handling the offense the last couple of seasons, though the loss of Avdic (to Werder Bremen) may prove costly should the other newbies fail to deliver.

2. Malmö FF. There are two reasons why I think they are going to finish so high: for one they haven’t sold anyone no matter how tempting it might have been and secondly they are the Swedish talent factory like an FC Barcelona super-light. Even if they end up selling two or three players in the summer market, they seem to have enough new faces around to make up the difference. One player to keep an eye on is Ivo Pekalski who just might make it to the national team (and a bigger club) before the season is over. MFF will however not make it to the group stages of the Champions League.

3. Helsingborgs IF. They let Marcus Lantz (Landskrona BOIS) go, and that was a big mistake. Let me rephrase that I think it was a huge mistake. Then again, given that they weren’t expected to go as far as they did in the first place, they might be capable of surprising us all over again. When they acquired Gerndt in the summer, they got what appears to be the biggest talent in Swedish football at the moment. If he can produce the goods again, then they have a good chance. Buying Peter Larsson from FC Copenhagen seems to have been a genius idea to fill the hole that Joel Ekstrand left when he went to Udinese. Once again the only real question mark here is who fills in for Lantz?

4. IFK Göteborg. Blåvit have every chance to do well, but it’s going to come down to the same thing it did last season: will Hysen and Söder be healthy? If the answer is yes then look for them to have a fantastic season, and one that will be a lot happier than last years very average one. Söder seems healthy now and there hasn’t been too much talk about his knee, now the question is will he keep developing? If yes is the answer, then he will at a new address by the end of the season. Sebastian Eriksson is also someone to keep an eye on.

5. Örebro SK. The only reason I am going to rank them this high is that they held onto Nordin Gerzic and he may prove to be the only thing holding them together and it might just be enough. The loss of Ajdarevic to Norrköping seems unnecessary, but then Sixten Boström has done stranger things before and had them turn out to be the right ones. Its possible they pick up some players in the summer window.

6. Mjällby AIF. Keeping names like El-Kabir, Grahn (if he is as good as last year, and he’s hopefully better), and Osiako means they have a good chance of being contenders. Lets face it though, with their budget it won’t matter how much heart you have because heart isn’t always enough. If they sell even one of those names, it could mean a lower placing.

7. Halmstads BK. Beware of the Spanish! After Malmö´s dream season last year, BK went out and got their assistant trainer Josep Ruiz and gave him a team all his own. I for one am looking forward to see if he can bring some new thinking to Allsvenskan now that he is completely in charge. Still the preseason has been a disappointment so far, so its better not to get ones hopes up. It would be nice to see Olsson and Sise have a good season.

8. AIK. They went from peak to trough in just a year. It must be one of the most spectacular meltdowns I have ever witnessed, and expecting them to do any better than eighth seems ridiculous. I can’t say that their new purchases are that impressive either. I think the whole thing hinges on Bangura. It’s a weak thing to lean on at best. Summer market anyone?

9. Kalmar FF. Personally I really like Nanne Bergstrand and his coaching philosophy. I also have enjoyed the writing of team captain Henrik Rydström at his Expressen blog over the last couple of years. Still it seems even this early that the new recruits aren’t the answer to the ills that ail them. A new stadium was definitely needed, but whether they can fill it or not is another question.

10. Djurgårdens IF. Another rather average year for the Stockholm club that a few years back was quite a powerhouse, then again not many teams in Sweden could sell guys like Elmander, Källström, and Isaksson and expect to be a top team very long. For all I know they might be quite a surprise this season. I am hoping not though. Jonsson is getting to old for this.

11. GAIS. They´ll find a way to stay.

12. BK Häcken. It´ll be another year of just getting by for Ranegie and co.

13. Trelleborgs FF. They always find a way to stay in so of course they’ll do it again this year. Plus they have Viktor Noring and that just might be enough. Tom Prahl is a coach who always speaks his mind on the field and seems to always have a solid plan. Look for them to be the major upsetters of the top balance.

14. Norrköpings IF. First years are always tough in the top division and for this classic club it will also be so. Look for Ajdarevic and a healthy Svensson to keep them afloat and hold them through the relegation battle.

15. Gefle IF. After selling Gerndt last summer I think they are finally going to have to go through a relegation battle just like last year, but this time they won’t be there next year.

16. Syrianska FC. I don’t know enough about them this season and that’s why I am also tipping them to be the worst team. Seems like a nice enough bunch of guys but lacking in power and squad depth to hang around.

League starts on the 4th of April!